alternative futures for la paz

a methodology for looking into the future

the present and future challenges facing la paz are considered in this study using an analytical framework that has been applied in many prior studies. in this framework, various future scenarios are generated, each of which produces a different alternative future. the aim of the study is to understand the consequences of the full range of the possible futures.

rather than attempting to create a single vision for the future of la paz, the study models the range of choices that decision-makers face today in order to better understand the implications of each of possible future paths. the approach utilizes the widest possible range of quantitative and qualitative information to represent a broad spectrum of values and opinions regarding the future of la paz, with the advice of residents guiding the development of the study to ensure that the study reflects local values.

computer models are developed in this study to assess key processes such as economic and ecological systems. a computer-based geographic information system (gis) is used to organize the data spatially and to model and represent complex processes at work.

interviews and discussions with relevant groups and individuals play a critical role in the study, both to help determine the types and extent of the conservation and development strategies to be studied, and to help define the economic, hydrological, visual, and ecological assessment models.

defining scenarios for the future of la paz

the analysis of different scenarios allows us to test and study the consequences of different possible futures for la paz. the study scenarios were developed based on discussions with representatives of the municipal, state, and federal governments, the private sector, and non-governmental organizations. the scenarios are defined by three strategically important variables:

among the many factors that will shape the future of la paz, these variables represent the most important sources of uncertainty. for example, the level of future economic growth in the region will depend heavily on the performance of the mexican economy and global markets. the choice of public policies is more directly within the control of the region of la paz. yet the political process could produce any one of numerous possible public policy choices. the amount of money available for public investments and policy implementation depends highly upon choices made at the federal and state levels.

discussions with residents were critical in shaping and informing the study.

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geographic information systems

a geographic information system (gis) is used for generating and managing geographically-referenced information. often, ground-based surveys are combined with satellite imagery or aerial photographs to produce data sets. a gis enables different geographic information sets to be captured, stored, integrated, manipulated, edited, compared and analyzed, such as those related to land use, infrastructure, and demographic conditions. in this study, we use a gis to represent current conditions of the landscape of the la paz region, to simulate future changes, and to evaluate their consequent impacts.

figure 11. geographic information systems are used to organize and analyse data for the study.

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economic and demographic growth projections

three possible economic and population growth projections are developed for the study—trend, medium, and rapid growth.

the trend growth projection assumes a continuation of recent growth rates. under this projection, economic growth averages 4.2% per year over the next 20 years with population growth of 1.8% per year.

the medium-growth projection is based on higher overall economic growth compared to the trend trajectory, with higher population growth rates drawing upon strong performance in the real estate sector and higher economic activity in the commercial and service sectors.

overall population growth averages 2.8% in this demand projection. this level of growth assumes strong demand for second homes, particularly from outsiders, and improved performance in the professional services sectors, such as in research and development, healthcare, and high technology.

rapid growth in the tourism industry, similar to that experienced in los cabos, forms the basis for the third growth projection. tourism is projected to grow at an annual rate of 8% per year from 2000 to 2010 and at 4.5% from 2010 to 2020, accompanied by strong growth in the commerce, services, real estate, finance and construction sectors. population growth averages 3.9% per annum for the first decade, approximately double the rate of the trend growth projection.

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demand for new land uses

each of the population and economic growth forecasts is associated with a different demand for new houses, as well as for new commercial, industrial and tourism space. in this study, we divide new land use demands into seven categories for the year 2020. the total demand for new urban land uses varies from 4,828 hectares to 9,102 hectares. urban land uses in 2000 covered an area of approximately 10,000 hectares.

figure 15. land use demand projections.

 

tourism
commercial	high-end housing	social housing
industry	urban housing	informal housing

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areas attractive for future development

many elements combine to determine where development will occur in the future. in this study we model the relative attractiveness of different potential areas of development to private investors, real estate developers, and builders. for housing, the most important characteristics of a building site include the availability of water and public services, access to roads, the distance to work and shopping, views from the house, and the character of the neighborhood. commerce and industry weight more heavily the availability of infrastructure and on access to markets and workers. tourism development focuses more on distance to beaches, good views and the natural surrounding. the maps displayed here show the results of attractiveness models that incorporate these determinants of the attraction for different locations. they display the areas that will experience the most development pressure in the future, without considering possible public intervention on land use practices.

potential tourism development.	high-end housing.	industry.	social housing.
urban housing with existing roads.	urban housing with an upgraded road system.	commerce with existing roads.	commerce with an upgraded road system.

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public policy options

among the many policy instruments that can be applied to the management of urban land use, the most commonly used policy tool is land use zoning. land use zoning specifies for each area of land which land uses are permitted. for this study, a simple zoning framework is applied that stipulates whether new development of any kind is permitted or not, on a given area of land. the ramifications of three options are explored with varying levels of restrictions on new development.

the least restrictive option assumes that land use will be unregulated in the future. in this option, only the areas that are inherently unsuitable for development are excluded from future use, for example, the areas within the major arroyos that flood frequently.

in a second more restrictive option, land protected by current law is barred from future development. legally protected areas include protected areas such as the islands in the gulf of california, areas abutting mangroves, and the federal maritime zone.

a third proactive policy option assumes that additional areas subject to new cultural, historical, visual, safety, and environmental conservation policies would be excluded from future development. these areas would include agricultural land, areas at risk of flooding from hurricanes, arroyos, areas with important biodiversity, steep slopes, and high-quality view corridors.

the components of each of the policy options are listed in figure 20. the spatial results of applying these restrictions are shown in figures 17, 18, 19.

 

figure 17. policy option 1: unregulated	figure 18. policy option 2: existing laws	figure 19. policy option 3: proactive policies

 

figure 20. policy option specifications.

 

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public finance alternatives

 

two public finance alternatives – low public financial resources and high public financial resources – are created to reflect the uncertainty of government budgets and the ability of the public sector to make key project and infrastructure investments. depending on the amount of government money available, each scenario incorporates assumptions about new infrastructure development, including improvements of existing roads, construction of new roads, enlargement of flood-control levees, and expansion of the sewage and water supply systems. the availability of resources for constructing new roads would open new areas for possible development. this changes the spatial allocation of new development, thereby increasing the attractiveness on some areas and potentially reducing the pressure in other areas.

 

road networks influence the location of future growth.	additional investments in public infrastructure such as water services will be needed in the future.	public invesments play an important role in promoting economic growth and in enhancing the quality of life.

 

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Simulation of Land Use Changes: Selected Scenarios

 

the economic and demographic projections, policy options and public finance alternatives combine to create eighteen possible scenarios for analysis. in this study, a computer program is used to geographically allocate new land uses in a priority sequence based on their assumed ability to pay for their most attractive locations, with tourism and industry first, followed by commerce and the four housing types in order: high-end, urban, social, and informal. the allocations are carried out in two stages, ten years and twenty years into the future. the resulting land use maps show the amount and location of each land use category. the projected land use configuration for each scenario is unique, varying in the extent, direction, and pattern of growth.

we present here the results of three selected scenarios that describe the likely range of possible changes. scenarios a and c represent the extremes. scenario a assumes the highest rate of economic expansion and population growth with the lowest level of constraints on development and a low level of public funding available for project and policy implementation. this scenario is expected to result in the most change in land use and the greatest impacts, although with higher potential economic benefits. scenario c modeled the lowest level of population and economic growth with the most restrictive set of conservation policies to shape the location of future growth and high levels of government resources available for implementation. this scenario is expected to produce the lowest environmental impact and least landscape change. scenario b forms a mid-point, with medium economic growth rates, policies based on existing laws, and a low level of government resources. these three scenarios provide a range of incremental policy changes, serving as a basis for comparative policy analysis.

a large majority of the population of the region of la paz lives within a relatively tight contigous urban area in the city of la paz (figure 22). outside of the urban area are scattered rural settlements, industria facilities in the north at punta prieta and pichilingue, and a small number of tourist developments.
future development will both expand the existing urban area and develop new areas outside of the urban core. the directiion of extent of growth will be shaped by the possible addition of new roads, the future demand for housing, commercial, and tourism development, and land use policies.

figures 23, 24, and 25 show the projected land use patterns for alternative futures a, b and c. as expected, alternative future a displays the greatest changes in land use with growth expanding along the coastlines and the road networks to the south. in addition to the larger urban area, development occurs on the mogote and along the most attractive coastlines on the northern peninsula. alternative future c occupies the other extreme with lower overall growth and a more compact area of change. alternative future b represents one of several midway points between these extremes.

figure 21. three selected scenarios

 

figure 22. land use in the year 2000

figure 23. land use 2020. alternative future a. rapid growth, unregulated policy set, high public resources.	figure 24. land use 2020. alternative future b. moderate growth, legal policy set, low public resources.
figure 25. land use 2020. alternative future c. trend growth, proactive policy set, high public resources.

<to see all the scenarios, please click here>