ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR THE REGION OF LA PAZ, BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, MEXICO

Front Cover of the Report

Copyright Printed
Design and layout	Robert Faris, Carl Steinitz, and Jennifer Toy
Cartography	Arthur Adeya

Carl Steinitz Robert Faris Michael Flaxman Juan Carlos Vargas-Moreno Guoping Huang Shiau-Yun Lu Tess Canfield	Harvard University
Óscar Arizpe Manuel Ángeles Micheline Cariño Fausto Santiago	Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur
Tom Maddock III Carolyn Lambert Kathryn Baird	University of Arizona
Lucio Godínez	Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Marinas

In cooperation with the Municipality of La Paz, B.C.S. and the State of Baja California Sur.

Balandra and Pichilingue as seen from the air.

Background
	Introduction
	The Region of La Paz
	The Study Area
	Historic Roots of the City
	Recurring Cycles of Over-exploitation
	Quality of Life in La Paz
Expecting Growth
	The Growth of Tourism in Los Cabos
	Diminishing Obstacles to Growth
	Anticipating Future Growth
	Growing Challenges for the Region of La Paz
	Water Scarcity
	Management of Wastewater and Solid Waste
Alternative Futures
	A Methodology for Looking into the Future
	Defining Scenarios for the Future of La Paz
	Geographic Information Systems
	Economic and Demographic Growth Projections
	Demand for New Land Uses
	Areas Attractive for Future Development
	Public Policy Options
	Public Finance Alternatives
	Simulation of Land Use Changes: Selected Scenarios
Evaluation
	Evaluating the Consequences of Future Changes
	Impacts on Groundwater
	Surface Water Impacts
	Impacts on Marine Ecology
	Impacts on Terrestrial Ecology
	Impacts on Visual Quality
	Impacts on Recreation
	Areas of Conflict
	Economic Impacts
	A Comparison of Eighteen Alternative Futures
Implications for Policy & Planning
	Options for La Paz
	The Critical Role of Public Institutions
	Policies to Guide the Future
	Further Reading and References
Authors & Credits
	Authors
	Acknowledgements
	Photography